How long?

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  • How long?

    How long until the next real estate bust? Prices are not maintainable, with inflation on the rise interest rates will be soon to follow (I think). At some point it has to fall apart, I'm sure people are also drawing equity out of homes as fast as banks will permit.

    States like Florida have a certain advantage with the influx of people/population, but that too can only last so long.

    So, how long?
    This posting is provided "AS IS" with no warranties either expressed, written or implied and confers no rights.
    You assume all risk for your use. The author is not responsible for your inability to understand logic, ambiguous references, sarcasm, the imaginary friends living inside my head or William Shatner's acting ability.

  • #2
    It's coming.. Sooner rather than later..
    As of April 2nd, boatless for the first time in many years.
    2019 Tidewater 252 CC Twin F150's- SOLD
    2016 Tidewater 230 CC VF250 SHO- SOLD
    Mobile, Al.
    Dauphin Island, Al.

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    • #3
      Its a sellers market for everything right now. I don't think its sustainable and expect things to come crashing down. I am not a doom/gloom kind of person either. Everything just seems so out of whack right now.
      Andrew Munao Jr
      Yamaha Sales/Tech Support, SIM Yamaha
      888-231-2392 | [email protected] | simyamaha.com

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      • #4
        I am usually a very cautious person (financially only). I don't think this one is going to burst and crash down in flames. I personally think this one will be a taper off kind of thing. I have been looking for hyper inflation and that may still come but this one is different. They don't have the Giant no application loans and crap like in the early 2000's. Banks have been pretty picky and doing their due diligence. Example, I am buying a commercial building in Tampa right now and even though I will be in a major positive equity position they are turning over every single stone and rock they can find.
        I see interest rates rising and the market tapering off. Once that happens things will slowly deflate to normal levels.

        Until that happens I am selling everything I can and financing as little as possible.

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        • #5
          I am in the hottest market in Mass right now, the north shore. People are leaving Boston and selling condos for 1m+ and moving to the burbs and paying cash, mostly driven by Covid fears and the new world. We had no intentions of selling but seeing the market and my proximity to retirement we had a long discussion on what to do because I did not have a lot of runway left before looking to sell the family home and find my retirement home and my feeling was I will not see this market again before retiring, I'm 63.

          Readers digest version: After a soul searching weekend, come Monday, we put the house on the market and I gave my two week notice at work; leaving work was a whole other issue. I used the time to ready the house. My wife and I did everything ourselves, all the packing, moving and storage. We are currently in a great apartment, an old mill building in the same town with 20' ceilings, exposed brick and beams, that's a lot cheaper with free heat and water. We signed a one year lease while we wait out the market before buying retirement home, we can re-up if the market is not yet favorable.

          We built the house 23 years ago and sold it for over $445,000 more than we paid. My plan is to enjoy the next couple months with the boat and then find a part time job for mad-money. Since I left work force a little earlier than anticipated I don't want to start drawing SS or from my portfolio.

          The listing if interested: https://www.redfin.com/MA/Amesbury/3...mpaign=1028197

          So, put the boat in Friday afternoon and it has rained non-stop since with no clearing forecasted through Monday. I haven't had a chance to slow down for the past two plus months but with the house closed (this Wed.) and we are all settled in and boat launched Friday, I'll really start to feel what it's like not working full time after for over 40 years. I think I'll enjoy the boat more but I suspect I'll get antsy for something more that will put gas in the boat.

          Anyway, thought I'd share, as I think it was Noelm that liked to see where/how others live.
          I can't help but think if I was a better person I could've been a dog. 🐕

          Chet
          Amesbury, MA
          1987 2855 Bayliner Contessa SB
          How can I help you?

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          • duckfish
            duckfish commented
            Editing a comment
            My mind got focused on the real estate discussion the first time thru

            More importantly..... Congratulations on your retirement!!!!

            Lucky bastage. So how does it feel?

          • Boat Bum
            Boat Bum commented
            Editing a comment
            Thanks for asking, it's a little too soon to tell how I feel about retirement as I have been going 100 mph since we decided to sell and me retire. That is behind us now as of Friday when the boat when in.

            I'm excited about having the time off now to enjoy my boat, we have such a short season, but seriously, I worry a little because I wasn't planning to retire now but certainly have the savings to do so, I just don't want to tap into anything right now so I'll probably find something I really enjoy doing, hopefully part time, at least until medicare kicks in at 65, I'll be 64 start of Oct.

            So far so good.

        • #6
          We just sold our home that we have lived in for over 30 years, did not use an agent. We got our asking price plus; we payed under asking for a condo that we found that also was not listed by and agent. Maybe we got lucky but I still feel like we overpaid a bit on the condo. Feels like we came out no worse than even on the transaction and still going to borrow at under 3% some of the money; just seems stupid to pay it off when our dollars are drawing well above the 3% range. The condo will serve as our retirement home going forward, but it is plenty roomy and has most of the amenities we had with the old house--other than there is no river in our back yard anymore....

          Comment


          • Boat Bum
            Boat Bum commented
            Editing a comment
            I'm still pinching myself at the price we got, it is a nice home and lovingly cared for by original owners but the roof, heating, and driveway are all 23 years old and will need addressing at some point. We sold in eight days and paid a 4% commission to Caldwell Banker, I thought they did a good job.

        • #7
          Interesting that this conversation came up.....

          It's entered my thoughts a number of times lately that with the insanity of the current market, it would make so much sense for me to sell our place now. This morning was another push in that direction when my youngest showed me some fakebook posts and a real estate adv. for the property of a family that has a daughter (now the realtor) that was a close childhood friend of her sister's. They just sold their home & 14 ac. property for what I would have guessed was in excess of double it's worth. 7 figures, which is not at all common around here for a property similar to mine. Sold in 3 days, cash, and somewhere over asking.

          I could really give our retirement a boost by selling now, find something inexpensive & modest to live in till we can actually retire and make a real move. But the thought of 2 moves is my worst nightmare. And I'm just not sure I'm ready to let go. I designed & built this place with my own 2 hands a little over 30 years ago. We raised our children here. It is still very much my happy place.

          But oh the extra money?!? I'll keep stewing on it. Probably until it's too late.
          Bob

          S Central PA

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          • #8
            Originally posted by duckfish View Post
            Interesting that this conversation came up.....

            It's entered my thoughts a number of times lately that with the insanity of the current market, it would make so much sense for me to sell our place now. This morning was another push in that direction when my youngest showed me some fakebook posts and a real estate adv. for the property of a family that has a daughter (now the realtor) that was a close childhood friend of her sister's. They just sold their home & 14 ac. property for what I would have guessed was in excess of double it's worth. 7 figures, which is not at all common around here for a property similar to mine. Sold in 3 days, cash, and somewhere over asking.

            I could really give our retirement a boost by selling now, find something inexpensive & modest to live in till we can actually retire and make a real move. But the thought of 2 moves is my worst nightmare. And I'm just not sure I'm ready to let go. I designed & built this place with my own 2 hands a little over 30 years ago. We raised our children here. It is still very much my happy place.

            But oh the extra money?!? I'll keep stewing on it. Probably until it's too late.
            Noting wrong with having an attachment to a property, when you do sell it will give you the same amount to use elsewhere. However if you can detach yourself and make the sale now, it's a good way of getting a jump on the next correction.
            This posting is provided "AS IS" with no warranties either expressed, written or implied and confers no rights.
            You assume all risk for your use. The author is not responsible for your inability to understand logic, ambiguous references, sarcasm, the imaginary friends living inside my head or William Shatner's acting ability.

            Comment


            • #9
              I love my home that I built as an owner-builder in '99 for under 100k, now valued at over 250k.
              No mortgage either!
              With this entertaining economy, my wife and I are now paper millionaires, just the facts, no emotion.

              My free boat from 11 year's ago now has over 20k in it, but replacement for a new identical boat would be over 60k, no thanks, I'll keep my boat and my house and retire at 60+, 57 currently.

              My wife and I are living well below are means and being good stewards of what God allows.

              If God were to take me this minute I would have no regrets!

              Be blessed in these highly entertaining times!

              BWP

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              • #10
                People are paying silly prices for real estate here, when (not if) it all goes to hell, there is going to be lots of families in very hot water, in houses they can no longer afford, and can only sell at a huge loss. There is "package deal" sub divisions popping up anywhere there is land, and people are borrowing the full amount to own their own home, on tiny blocks of land, with houses built almost on the fence line, we have pretty strict laws on front setback and side distance, but, developers have got special exemptions on new developments, a standard side clearance to the fence boundary (measured from the closest point on the house, which is the eave) is 1.2m (4 feet) some new houses are only 300mm (1 foot) from the fence, you can't even walk down 1 foot clearance! The minimum land size has been reduced so more can be crammed in, close together, I don't know what the long term result will be, but, it doesn't look too good.

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                • #11
                  Selling your home is a very big deal, to some, it's nothing, but to me I just couldn't do it, sure it would make me very comfortable, but I love where I live, moving out into the "burbs" would never be an option for us. There is nothing better than the family being here, enjoying the beach, the fishing, the view, a BBQ (cook out on a grill) on the balcony in the summer, it's like being on holidays every day, some day I guess we will down size into some kind of unit/retirement village thing, but I hope that's a way off yet.

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                  • #12
                    Taxes and crime are driving the Florida market. Plus, boomers retiring and working people cutting the ties to a daily office. Never before have we had these economic drivers.

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                    • #13
                      Originally posted by noelm View Post
                      People are paying silly prices for real estate here, when (not if) it all goes to hell, there is going to be lots of families in very hot water, in houses they can no longer afford, and can only sell at a huge loss. There is "package deal" sub divisions popping up anywhere there is land, and people are borrowing the full amount to own their own home, on tiny blocks of land, with houses built almost on the fence line, we have pretty strict laws on front setback and side distance, but, developers have got special exemptions on new developments, a standard side clearance to the fence boundary (measured from the closest point on the house, which is the eave) is 1.2m (4 feet) some new houses are only 300mm (1 foot) from the fence, you can't even walk down 1 foot clearance! The minimum land size has been reduced so more can be crammed in, close together, I don't know what the long term result will be, but, it doesn't look too good.
                      I was looking at house prices in Byron Bay the other day and man they were much higher than I was anticipating. I want to move back to OZ but not sure I could afford it. I was also looking at the Gold Coast as well. Would love to move to Surfers Paradise as well.

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                      • #14
                        Yep, it's pretty spooky the current prices, Byron is very much a rich yuppie spot, people pretending to be snobs, anywhere near the water is going to cost you big money.

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                        • #15
                          Yeah I didn't realize Byron was like that. I thought it was a hippie kind of town. The wave there is phenomenal. I wish we never left OZ. That was a long time ago however.

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